NU
Mon, 07 July 2025
KATHMANDU, Nepal / WASHINGTON D.C. – Nepali families heavily reliant on remittances and young Nepalis aspiring to higher education and careers in the United States are bracing for potential economic fallout, as the US graduate job market plunges to its toughest state in over a decade. This challenging environment for new graduates in the US directly impacts remittance flows and career prospects for the Nepali diaspora.
Official data from the United States reveals that unemployment for young, recent US university graduates (aged 22-27 with bachelor's degrees) has surged to 5.8 per cent. This alarming figure marks its highest point since November 2013 (excluding the pandemic period) and remains stubbornly higher than the overall US unemployment rate, which has stabilised between 3.5 per cent and 4 per cent post-pandemic. For Nepal, whose economy leans significantly on foreign earnings, this trend signals potential instability.
The once-promising US labour market for new graduates has consistently weakened since 2022, with new hiring projected to plummet by a significant 16 per cent year-on-year in 2025. Furthermore, job openings for professional and business services, particularly in "new-grad-heavy sectors" like technology, finance, and business information, have seen a drastic 40 per cent decline since 2021. This downturn is driven by cyclical post-pandemic hiring slowdowns, economic uncertainty linked to the current US presidency, and the emerging, though debated, impact of Artificial Intelligence (AI) potentially displacing entry-level roles.
For the growing number of Nepali students and professionals who historically view US higher education and subsequent employment as a pathway to economic advancement, this scenario presents formidable obstacles. Many Nepalis invest heavily in their US education, with undergraduate degrees averaging $27,673 annually, and graduates often accumulating nearly $30,000 in student debt. They now face intensified competition for limited job openings and increased difficulty in securing crucial post-graduation work opportunities like Optional Practical Training (OPT) and H-1B visas, which are essential for launching a career and managing their significant financial obligations.
Reports indicate that Nepali students are already experiencing heightened uncertainty due to tighter US visa regulations and struggles in finding employment. Stories circulating online and through recent media reports, like that of 25-year-old Rebecca Atkins, a law and justice graduate who sent over 250 applications with little success, highlight the widespread disillusionment. Atkins described the experience as "extremely dispiriting," leading her to believe she was "terrible at working." Another echoed sentiment, drawn from the experiences of individuals like Katie Bremer, a 2021 American University graduate, illustrates the challenges of underemployment, with some graduates finding themselves in roles outside their field, supplementing income through casual work like babysitting.
The implications extend beyond individual struggles to Nepal's broader economic health. Remittances are a cornerstone of Nepal's economy, accounting for an impressive 26.6 per cent of its GDP in 2023, with inflows reaching NPR 1356.61 billion in the first ten months of Fiscal Year 2024/25. Should the challenging US job market lead to reduced or stagnating remittance inflows from Nepali professionals, it could directly affect the livelihoods of countless families in Nepal who rely on these funds. While recent remittance growth has been robust, a prolonged downturn in key receiving countries like the US could introduce future volatility for the national economy.
Moreover, Nepal continues to grapple with a significant "brain drain," reflected by a "Human Flight and Brain Drain index" of 6.10 in 2024, indicating a higher level of skilled emigration compared to the global average. While domestic factors like limited opportunities drive many to seek work abroad, a severely constrained US job market could, paradoxically, reduce the "pull" factor for some, potentially leading to fewer Nepalis choosing to study or work there. However, this scenario doesn't automatically translate to a reversal of brain drain, as Nepal's domestic job market still struggles to absorb its own skilled workforce effectively.
Prominent analysts, including Matthew Martin, Senior US Economist at Oxford Economics, offer little immediate optimism, warning that the labour market for recent graduates is "likely to get worse before it gets better." Their assessments, echoed by other economic experts like Gregory Daco, Chief Economist at EY-Parthenon, underscore how slowing tech sector hiring and broad economic uncertainty are disproportionately affecting new graduates. For Nepal, the immediate future signals a tightening squeeze on its youth's global ambitions and its crucial foreign earnings.
